Is Risk Really As Low As You Think?

The media has seized on the seeming paradox of high market uncertainty accompanied by unusually low equity market volatilityThe uncertainty has many potential sources. What will be the impact of Trump’s policies? Will we see more populist uprisings? Will central banks reverse course? Forecasts from Axioma’s risk models concur—risk seems unusually low and, in fact, has fallen fairly steadily over the last 12 months, with just a few hiccups related to the Brexit vote and the US election.